Florida Atlantic

Conference:	CUSA
Expected RPI:	275.0
Current RPI:	275
Expected SOS:	229
Current SOS:	229
Current Record:	9-19
Expected Record:	9-19
Current Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-7
Current OOC Record:	3-6
Expected OOC Record:	3-6
Expected OOC RPI:	248
Expected OOC SOS:	212

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
9-19	275.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Florida Atlantic.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	South Florida (278.0)	Amer	A	60-59	L	0%
11-20	Towson (153.0)	CAA	N	52-76	L	0%
11-21	Northern Illinois (241.0)	MAC	N	77-67	W	100%
11-22	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	N	60-71	L	0%
12-2	Bethune Cookman (288.0)	MEAC	H	93-75	W	100%
12-5	Florida Gulf Coast (172.0)	ASun	A	88-92	W	100%
12-16	Arkansas St. (291.0)	SB	H	63-64	L	0%
12-19	Texas Tech (23.0)	B12	A	90-54	L	0%
12-23	Minnesota (171.0)	B10	A	95-60	L	0%
12-30	FIU (295.0)	CUSA	A	58-57	L	0%
1-4	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	H	44-75	L	0%
1-6	Middle Tennessee (33.0)	CUSA	H	57-61	L	0%
1-11	UTEP (293.0)	CUSA	A	66-73	W	100%
1-13	UTSA (187.0)	CUSA	A	69-73	W	100%
1-18	Charlotte (323.0)	CUSA	H	75-64	W	100%
1-20	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	H	62-73	L	0%
1-25	North Texas (235.0)	CUSA	A	59-53	L	0%
1-27	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	A	62-63	W	100%
2-1	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	H	62-67	L	0%
2-3	Southern Miss (207.0)	CUSA	H	66-77	L	0%
2-8	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	A	75-63	L	0%
2-10	Marshall (87.0)	CUSA	A	79-68	L	0%
2-17	FIU (295.0)	CUSA	H	77-72	W	100%
2-22	Rice (328.0)	CUSA	H	76-79	L	0%
2-24	North Texas (235.0)	CUSA	H	74-54	W	100%
3-1	Old Dominion (78.0)	CUSA	A	69-64	L	0%
3-3	Charlotte (323.0)	CUSA	A	85-78	L	0%
3-7	UAB (155.0)	CUSA	N	83-72	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Florida Atlantic's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Florida Atlantic's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Florida Atlantic.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	26.18	26.18	33.09	33.09	-8.86	-8.86
FIU	CUSA	4.40	4.40	37.04	37.04	-1.14	-1.14
Old Dominion	CUSA	4.34	4.34	76.67	76.67	2.32	2.32
North Texas	CUSA	4.31	4.31	42.86	42.86	-0.62	-0.62
Rice	CUSA	4.28	4.28	14.81	14.81	-3.01	-3.01
Charlotte	CUSA	4.27	4.27	15.38	15.38	-2.96	-2.96
UAB	CUSA	4.25	4.25	55.17	55.17	0.44	0.44
Western Kentucky	CUSA	2.72	2.72	68.75	68.75	1.02	1.02
Marshall	CUSA	2.64	2.64	68.75	68.75	0.99	0.99
Southern Miss	CUSA	2.61	2.61	37.93	37.93	-0.63	-0.63
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	2.61	2.61	46.67	46.67	-0.17	-0.17
UTSA	CUSA	2.58	2.58	55.17	55.17	0.27	0.27
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	2.58	2.58	75.86	75.86	1.33	1.33
UTEP	CUSA	2.56	2.56	34.48	34.48	-0.79	-0.79
South Florida	Amer	1.97	1.97	29.03	29.03	-0.83	-0.83
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	1.91	1.91	66.67	66.67	0.64	0.64
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	1.87	1.87	55.17	55.17	0.19	0.19
Texas Tech	B12	1.85	1.85	71.88	71.88	0.81	0.81
Towson	CAA	1.84	1.84	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
Arkansas St.	SB	1.81	1.81	27.59	27.59	-0.81	-0.81
Missouri St.	MVC	1.81	1.81	51.61	51.61	0.06	0.06
Minnesota	B10	1.79	1.79	45.16	45.16	-0.17	-0.17
Northern Illinois	MAC	1.79	1.79	37.93	37.93	-0.43	-0.43
James Madison	CAA	0.27	0.27	29.03	29.03	-0.11	-0.11
Indiana St.	MVC	0.20	0.20	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
UT Arlington	SB	0.18	0.18	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.18	0.18	28.57	28.57	-0.08	-0.08
William & Mary	CAA	0.17	0.17	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.15	0.15	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Elon	CAA	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Chattanooga	SC	0.15	0.15	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
South Alabama	SB	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
North Florida	ASun	0.15	0.15	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.15	0.15	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Jacksonville	ASun	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.14	0.14	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Iowa	B10	0.14	0.14	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.14	0.14	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
College of Charleston	CAA	0.12	0.12	77.42	77.42	0.07	0.07
Georgia St.	SB	0.12	0.12	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Texas St.	SB	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.12	0.12	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
South Carolina	SEC	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.12	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Appalachian St.	SB	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.12	0.12	25.81	25.81	-0.06	-0.06
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Buffalo	MAC	0.12	0.12	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
Troy	SB	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.12	0.12	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.12	0.12	16.67	16.67	-0.08	-0.08
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.12	0.12	9.68	9.68	-0.09	-0.09
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Evansville	MVC	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
USC Upstate	ASun	0.11	0.11	10.71	10.71	-0.09	-0.09
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Richmond	A10	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Texas	B12	0.11	0.11	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Milwaukee	Horz	0.09	0.09	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.09	0.09	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico	MWC	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.09	0.09	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.09	0.09	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.09	0.09	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Manhattan	MAAC	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Toledo	MAC	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Wichita St.	Amer	0.09	0.09	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.09	0.09	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.09	0.09	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.09	0.09	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Temple	Amer	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.08	0.08	82.35	82.35	0.05	0.05
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
West Virginia	B12	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Davidson	A10	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	8.00	8.00	-0.05	-0.05
UNLV	MWC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	15.62	15.62	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Penn	Ivy	0.06	0.06	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
San Diego	WCC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Washington St.	P12	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
New Orleans	Slnd	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
NJIT	ASun	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Houston	Amer	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.06	0.06	84.38	84.38	0.04	0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	B10	0.06	0.06	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Boston University	Pat	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.03	-0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.03	-0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Loyola MD	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.03	0.03	30.77	30.77	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Denver	Sum	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	39.39	39.39	-0.01	-0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.02	-0.02
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02